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Betting Picks

Best Outright Bets — 2023 John Deere Classic

Some weeks, I will already be locked and loaded on several bets. This is not one of them. Currently, only two players have my attention, and I can’t exactly say I have conviction on either. I always post in discord the moment I enter a bet into the tracker, so until I do, know that I’m still mulling these over.

Davis Thompson

We give Thompson a 1.2% chance to win, which would be good for a 20% edge. He’s coming off his best finish since January, led by characteristically strong driving. Part of what makes Thompson a solid outright bet is his volatility — specifically, his iron play is so hot and cold that when he does have it, he’s a completely different player than when he doesn’t.

To this point, he has yet to sustain strong iron play for four days and as a result, there is nothing inspiring about any of his recent finishes. That said, Keegan Bradley had a similar story prior to his win at The Travelers. I would rather see a player flash the upside and be unable to sustain it than never flash it at all.

Lanto Griffin

Best available: 300-1 (FanDuel, PointsBet, Caesars)
Worst available: 150-1

Listen, Lanto has been terrible since returning from injury, but 300-1? In this field? This is a player who gained 10-plus strokes on the field in three separate events last season.

Historically, Lanto has two strengths to his game: iron play and putting. Both have been disastrous for most of the season. The putter was his issue last week, but he at least showed real signs with his ball striking. It was the first time he gained strokes with his irons since May and his best driving performance in over a year.

I am willing to overlook the horrendous putting because I tend to believe that once he holes a few in key moments, he will be more like his long-term self than his recent self on the greens.

Without question, Justin and I will discuss him at length on Pro v Pro.

Course Fit — 2023 John Deere Classic

Best Outright Bets — 2023 John Deere Classic

Davis Thompson

Lanto Griffin