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Welcome to Week 14 of our DVOA-based picks.

Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we pick every game.

Every week I will post picks on Thursday morning for subscribers. Come back here on Sunday morning and I will update the picks before the 1pm games begin.

The picks are listed with a confidence order and the picks with the strongest confidence will be colored blue. Those are picks with a difference of at least 7 points (straight up) or 3 points (spread and total). I do not make picks where the difference between the projection and the actual line is 0.1 points or lower.

ORDER HOME AWAY LINE (HOME) PROJ LINE SPREAD PICK CONF. ORDER STRAIGHT PICK CONF. ORDER TOTAL PROJ TOTAL TOTAL PICK CONF. ORDER
1 PIT NE -6 -7 PIT 9 PIT 6 30 39.7 Over 1
2 CLE JAX -1.5 0.4 JAX 5 JAX 14 37.5 37 Under 13
3 BAL LAR -7.5 -8.8 BAL 8 BAL 4 42 45.3 Over 4
4 CHI DET 3 6.2 DET 2 DET 8 44.5 41.5 Under 5
5 NO CAR -5.5 -8 NO 4 NO 5 39 40.7 Over 9
6 ATL TB -1 -0.3 TB 11 ATL 15 41 43 Over 8
7 CIN IND -3 -1.2 IND 6 CIN 13 44.5 44.1 Under 14
8 NYJ HOU 3 6.9 HOU 1 HOU 7 33 37.5 Over 2
9 SF SEA -14 -14.7 SF 10 SF 1 45.5 44.3 Under 12
10 LV MIN 3 2.6 LV 12 MIN 11 40.5 41.8 Over 11
11 LAC DEN -3 -2.7 DEN 13 LAC 10 45 46.5 Over 10
12 KC BUF -1.5 -1.7 KC 14 KC 12 49 49 — —
13 DAL PHI -3.5 -3.3 PHI 15 DAL 9 51.5 47.5 Under 3
14 MIA TEN -13.5 -11.9 TEN 7 MIA 2 46 43.5 Under 6
15 NYG GB 6.5 9.5 GB 3 GB 3 37 39.3 Over 7

W-L record through Week 13