Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-120/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-120) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 139.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalton Schultz to earn 6.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- Dalton Schultz has totaled a whopping 47.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among tight ends.
- Dalton Schultz’s 41.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 34.2.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a huge 17.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Dalton Schultz has accrued significantly fewer receiving yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (51.0).
- Dalton Schultz’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 77.9% to 66.2%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
