Week 9 DVOA: Ravens and Browns Approach Historical Greatness

The Cleveland Browns travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens this Sunday at 1pm EST, which is good because this week’s DVOA commentary is going to concentrate on these two franchises. The new Browns and the oLD Browns are both making historical waves.

This is the third straight week that the Ravens sit at No. 1 in overall DVOA, but the rest of the world is starting to get an idea of how good this team can be after they dismantled the Seahawks, 37-3. The Ravens now have three of the top five single games this year. Their Week 7 win over Detroit is first, this win is third, and a 28-3 victory over Cleveland in Week 4 is fifth. That one comes with a little bit of an asterisk because the Browns were starting rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but it was also the second-highest total of points the Browns have given up in a game this season.

With these huge wins, the Ravens have pulled out to a massive lead in DVOA, nearly 20 percentage points over the Kansas City Chiefs (who climb two spots to No. 2 this week). The Ravens now rank as the third-best team ever measured with DVOA through nine games, going back to 1981.

It’s interesting to me that DVOA has the Ravens so far ahead of other advanced metrics around the Internet. The Ravens are far ahead of the rest of the NFL in Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, at 14.8 with the 49ers second at 9.6. However, most EPA-based metrics do not have the Ravens on top. For example, ESPN FPI has the Ravens second behind Kansas City. Kevin Cole’s power rankings put the Ravens sixth (and still have the Bills first!).

Comparing DVOA to the EPA numbers at RBSDM, the difference seems to be in measuring offense. The Ravens are a clear No. 2 in defensive EPA per play, with a gap between them and the rest of the league similar to the gap in DVOA. The Ravens are only seventh in offensive EPA per play compared to fourth in DVOA. However, they are No. 1 running in both stats, and the pass difference is only one spot in the rankings (11th DVOA, 12th EPA). Could the difference be due to the changes in the new version of DVOA this year that lower the weight of plays when a team has a big lead in the fourth quarter? The Ravens’ offensive DVOA drops to 0.0% with a lead of more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, and perhaps some of the difference is EPA giving full weight to those plays while DVOA is down-weighting them.

I noted on Twitter that I don’t think the Ravens are truly this good. I think they are the best team in the NFL right now, but not by such a gigantic margin. I don’t think they’re really one of the best teams ever. I would like to see them beat a top team, such as the Bengals in two weeks with a healthy Joe Burrow. On the other hand, isn’t it moving the goalposts a bit to claim that they haven’t beaten a top team yet? They dominated the Seahawks, who were in the top 10 a week ago. They dominated the Lions, who are still in the top five right now. Do you feel like it doesn’t count unless they beat a top AFC team? Well, Cleveland is a top AFC team, currently eighth in DVOA, and the Ravens dominated them too. Is DTR really that much worse than Deshaun Watson right now to make that Baltimore win “not count” as a win over a top team?

The reason why Cleveland is a top team is defense, of course. The Browns have the best defense in the league and one of the best defenses we’ve ever measured after a colossal game against the Arizona Cardinals, a 27-0 victory where the Cardinals had no offense to speak of. The Browns limited Arizona to just seven first downs all day. Even after adjusting for the poor quality of the Arizona offense, this game comes out as one of the top individual defensive games ever measured by DVOA.

These are the 11 games now with defensive DVOA better than -100%. I thought it would be fun to go back and look at the details of these games. Some are classics and some are forgotten.

11. 1982 AFC Championship: Miami 14, New York Jets 0.

This was famous as the “Mud Bowl” because heavy rains in Miami transformed the field into a mud pit. The Jets complained about the decision by the Miami groundskeepers not to place a tarp over the field before the game. Jets quarterback Richard Todd completed 15 of 37 passes for 103 yards with five interceptions and four sacks. Linebacker A.J. Duhe had three of the picks and returned one for a touchdown. The Jets also averaged less than three yards per carry on the ground.

10. 2005 Week 8: New York Giants 36, Washington 0.

Giants owner Wellington Mara had died the week before this game, and the Giants dedicated the game to his memory. Apparently, neither quarterback was too inspired. Eli Manning completed 12 of 31 passes for 146 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Mark Brunell was even worse, completing 11 of 28 passes for just 65 yards with a pick and three sacks. Washington fumbled three times, losing all three, and gained only 38 yards on the ground all day. Instead, the game turned into a showcase for Tiki Barber, who carried the ball 24 times for 206 yards to drive the Giants offense.

9. 1982 Week 6 (Week 14): Buffalo 13, Pittsburgh 0.

Not a game anyone seems to have particular memories about, but the Steelers combined for -2 net passing yards in the freezing Buffalo cold. Terry Bradshaw was 2 for 13 for 3 yards with four sacks, two picks, and a fumble. Cliff Stoudt then came in and went 2 for 10 for 29 yards with another pick and another sack. At least the Steelers managed 4.4 yards per carry on the ground.

8. 2004 Week 14: Buffalo 37, Cleveland 7.

Another freezing Buffalo day, and a dominant performance from the best team ever to miss the playoffs according to DVOA. The Browns had -3 net passing yards. Luke McCown was 8 for 20 for 62 yards with two picks and six sacks. The Browns’ running game managed just 29 yards on 18 carries. The Browns also had five fumbles. Their only touchdown drive came after Nate Clements fumbled a punt return and the Browns recovered at the Buffalo 18. Even on that drive, McCown threw a pick but it was nullified by an Aaron Schobel offside penalty.

7. 2023 Week 9: Cleveland 27, Arizona 0.

You know this one. The Cardinals averaged 1.2 yards per play with three turnovers.

6. 1985 Super Bowl: Chicago 46, New England 10.

It’s a tough argument between this game and the next one for the best defensive performance in Super Bowl history. The Patriots had -19 yards in the first half, scoring a field goal because Walter Payton fumbled on the Bears 20. Tony Eason was pulled from the game after starting 0-for-6 with three sacks. Steve Grogan came in and took four more sacks with two picks. The Patriots finished the game with 11 carries for 7 yards on the ground. In total, they had six turnovers: four fumbles and the two Grogan picks. The Patriots did manage an actual touchdown drive at the end of the third quarter and start of the fourth, going 76 yards for a score on fourth-and-goal from the Chicago 8.

5. 2000 Super Bowl: Baltimore 34, New York Giants 7.

Baltimore held Kerry Collins of the Giants to 15-for-39 for 112 yards with four interceptions and four sacks. Surprisingly, even though the 2000 Ravens are the best run defense in DVOA history, the Giants managed 66 yards on 16 carries which is over 4.0 yards per carry. But they converted just 2 out of 14 chances on third down. The Giants’ only score came on special teams with a 97-yard Ron Dixon kickoff return for a touchdown.

4. 2014 Week 15 Houston 24, Baltimore 13.

Honestly, I don’t remember even noticing how strong the defensive DVOA was for this game at the time, but the Texans completely shut down a reasonably good Ravens offense. Baltimore had 16 carries for just 33 yards on the ground. In the air, Joe Flacco went 21 for 50 — that is a lot of pass attempts — for 195 yards. He threw two touchdowns but also three interceptions. The Ravens went 4-for-15 on third downs and 0-for-2 on fourth downs. They scored two touchdowns, but the first one came on a drive that started on the Houston 9 after a long Jacoby Jones punt return. The second one, at least, was a real touchdown drive in the fourth quarter that started on the Baltimore 24. The Texans, meanwhile, got six field goals plus a touchdown on an Arian Foster option halfback pass.

3. 1989 Week 1 Cleveland 51, Pittsburgh 0.

Just a horrific day for the Steelers. The Browns returned two fumbles and an interception for touchdowns. Linebacker David Grayson had two of those touchdowns, the pick-six and one of the fumbles. In total, the Steelers had eight turnovers. They gained 36 yards on 17 carries and Bubby Brister went 10-for-22 for 84 yards with six sacks.

2. 2009 Week 17 New York Jets 37, Cincinnati 0.

This is a bit of a weird one. The Bengals had clinched the AFC North the week before, although they still needed to play for seeding. The Jets needed this win to make the playoffs as a wild card. This was the final game of the 2009 regular season and the final game ever at Giants Stadium. The temperature at the Meadowlands was 20 degrees with a wind chill of 4. Carson Palmer started out 1-for-11 with an interception, so Marvin Lewis just pulled him and let J.T. O’Sullivan play the rest of the game. He was 3-for-8 for 31 yards with three sacks. Because of this win, the Jets and Bengals faced off again the following week in Cincinnati, and the Jets won that game as well, 24-14.

1. 1991 Week 3 Philadelphia 24, Dallas 0.

The best defense in DVOA history also has the best game in DVOA history, completely dominating the Dallas Cowboys led by the Triplets. The Cowboys ended up finishing third in offensive DVOA that season and were favored in this game by 3.5 points, but Troy Aikman took 11 sacks. ELEVEN! Clyde Simmons had 4.5 sacks, Jerome Brown 2.5, and Mike Golic 2.0. Aikman finished 11-for-25 with 112 passing yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions. Emmitt Smith had 44 yards on 13 carries.

Here’s where the Browns stand on the all-time defensive list through eight games:

The Ravens are also on that best defensive DVOA list if we run it through nine games instead of eight games. The Ravens would be 11th, with the Browns not making the list since they haven’t played nine games yet. I assume we’ll run that list next Tuesday unless the Ravens somehow destroy the Browns defense on Sunday afternoon and knock them off this list.

This week’s biggest mover in the DVOA ratings is also an AFC North team! Pittsburgh moved up seven spots to 13th with a win over Tennessee. And to round out the division, the Cincinnati Bengals are up to No. 11 after defeating the Buffalo Bills. I’ve adjusted the Bengals’ rating in our playoff odds report to reflect their original offensive projection based on the idea that Joe Burrow is now fully healthy and the Bengals offense has been much better in the last two weeks. In 8.5% of our simulations, the entire AFC North makes the playoffs. (It was 9.0% before the Chargers beat the Jets last night.)

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Are you watching the FTN Network Schatz and Tanier show yet? Every Monday and Thursday at 11am Eastern, I go through the NFL schedule with my former Football Outsiders compatriot Mike Tanier of The Messenger. Mondays we review the games of the previous weekend, and Thursdays we do a preview of the coming weekend. You can make comments and ask questions live or check it out as a podcast later on your favorite podcast app! Here’s the most recent show:

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These are the FTN DVOA and DAVE ratings through nine weeks of 2023. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) Opponent adjustments are currently at 90% strength.

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 45% preseason forecast and 55% actual performance for teams with eight games and 36% forecast with 64% actual performance for teams with nine games.