WNBA Best Bets (Thursday 6/6)

We have two evening games Thursday around the WNBA. Rookie Angel Reese and the Chicago Sky will go to the nation’s capital to play the winless Washington Mystics, while the 2023 WNBA Finals runner-up New York Liberty will go to Atlanta to battle Rhyne Howard and the Dream.

Below, we will be going over our best bet from this two-game slate.

Stefanie Dolson Over 4.5 Rebounds

(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is an interesting one — at this stage of her career, Stefanie Dolson isn’t exactly someone I zero in on in the prop market. However, Shakira Austin remains out for the Mystics, and Dolson should benefit from that. In six games with Austin active, Dolson averages a little under 23 MPG, while in three games without Austin, Dolson has averaged a little over 26 MPG. More importantly, Dolson is averaging just a 6.5% rebound rate when sharing the floor with Austin this season. When Austin is off the floor, that number jumps to 10.8%.

This season, nobody has allowed more rebounds per game than the Chicago Sky, allowing 36.9 rebounds per game. Given the size of Chicago with Kamilla Cardoso, Angel Reese and Elizabeth Williams, I would expect the Mystics to need Dolson’s size, perhaps for even more than her typical 26 MPG when Shakira Austin is absent. More court time of course means more rebounding opportunities, and with the increase in her rebound rate without Austin, that has me believing 4.5 rebounds is too low this evening.