WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s time for the NBA Finals! Although I’m a little sad that the season is coming to an end, I couldn’t be more excited to watch two great basketball teams with plenty of time to rest and game plan face off over the next two or more weeks.
Unlike the regular season, there will be no back-to-backs or a different opponent for every game. Teams have at least two days off between every game of the NBA finals, which means they can rest, recuperate and work on schemes to fix problems and attack weaknesses. We get to truly see the best the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks have to offer, and it starts with Game 1 Thursday.
The start of the series can be crucial. The Celtics have been favored to win the title all season and are favored to win Thursday as well. Losing could be devastating not only, because they would lose homecourt advantage but might struggle to recover from a painful defeat. The Mavericks are expected to lose but know the value of winning on the road to show their opponent they can beat them anywhere.
There’s a lot to unpack, so let’s break down the game and try to find some value in the betting markets. Of course, be sure to join the FTN team and myself for a live watch party. We’ll be on Playback where we can show the game, share out live bets, and get you involved in the conversation.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics
Current Line – Celtics -6.5, 216.5
My Projection – Celtics 112, Mavericks 107
Key Injuries – None
Check out my full preview for the series for a more detailed breakdown of the matchup and to see what bets I’ve already made. In general, I think the Celtics have the more talented team if Kristaps Porzingis can play, but there are mismatches for the Mavericks to attack, and Luka Doncic could be the best player in the series. There are a lot of small things to watch for in Game 1. It will be interesting to see how the Celtics organize themselves defensively. They have several good defenders to throw at Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, and I’m curious to see who is guarding whom to start the game. The Mavericks’ defense has been great throughout the postseason, but they have yet to face a team with this many players who can score and have postseason experience. Boston’s stars have yet to prove they can score late in big games, so can they build a big lead early and hold on or will Luka and Kyrie steal wins as the games come to a finish? Those are all crucial aspects of how this series will play out, but there is one big question that will define the highest level the Celtics can achieve in the NBA Finals and impact how Boston starts the series.
Kristaps Porzingis has not played since Game 4 of Round 1 of the playoffs April 29. He strained his calf and has been resting since. It’s been about six weeks since then, which is plenty of time for a player to recover from that type of injury and be able to play at 75%-plus of their full capability. Porzingis is the key to a very good Boston team becoming a great team. On offense, he’s shooting spaces the floor and his play in the post gives the Celtics a good option when plays breakdown late in the shot clock. Defensively, KP is the best rim protector on the team and a good defender in pick-and-rolls. I expect KP to play good basketball in this series. The questions are when will that be and how long will it take the rest of Boston’s roster to adjust to his return? Returning from a long break is rough for any player and even more so when that return is for the NBA Finals. I’m sure the Celtics have used their break to work KP in with the rest of the team, but it could lead to a clunky start in Game 1. If Porzingis is attacking on offense, making shots, and moving well on defense to start then I will be looking to back overs and maybe some Boston alternate lines live. Be sure to join me and the FTN team for our Playback stream for the game. We’ll be showing the game, sharing our live bets, and talking through everything.
For now, I won’t be betting anything in the full game markets. My projections are close to the market, and I think there’s too much uncertainty around Porzingis to feel too confident about how this game will start. There are two player props I did bet based on how I expect the Mavericks to play. Dallas has been using Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II in a platoon at center — one plays about 4-5 minutes and is then subbed out for the other player. Against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves there was always a big man or non-shooter on the floor for Gafford or Lively to defend. That will not be the case in this series. The Celtics have a roster full of shooters and skilled offensive players without a traditional, big center. I think that is going to make it really tough for Gafford to stay on the floor, which will force the Mavericks to do two things. First, they’ll play Lively more minutes. He is a better athlete, can defend perimeter players, and is a good passer who can’t be left alone when Boston is defending. Second, Maxi Kleber will see more minutes, specifically minutes that had been going to Gafford. Kleber hurt his shoulder but played two games against Minnesota and looked ok in what was a bad matchup for him. He’s been used as a small-ball center by the Mavericks for the past few seasons. Kleber is a good shooter and athletic enough to guard Tatum and Brown. With all that in mind, I’ll be playing Lively overs and Kleber overs to start the series. More specifically, I’ll bet Lively over 15.5 points+rebounds combined and Kleber over 0.5 (aka to make 1+) three pointer.
Bets
Dereck Lively II Over 15.5 Points+Rebounds (-110, BetMGM)
Maxi Kleber Over 0.5 Made 3s (+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
