NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
With this being the first week of bye weeks, the slates are getting shorter and ownership will get more condensed. It is now more important than ever to find those contrarian plays
Guys with low roster percentages are how to get contrarian on popular players or find leverage off them. For all our FTN Daily DFS ownership projections, head here.
One new feature in our brand-new NFL DFS Optimizer is that you can force the opto to include a set number of players below any ownership projections you want. I highly recommend forcing at least one player at sub-10% ownership to differentiate yourself from the field.
Here are my 10 under 10% for Week 6:
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
DraftKings Ownership Projection: 4.73%
FanDuel Ownership Projection: 6.14%
Justin Herbert was the star of last week’s article and that paid off in a huge way. He is back this week in a game that will be popular, but most will go to Lamar Jackson at a similar price tag, who is currently projected for the highest ownership of any quarterback on the year. The Chargers have a concentrated offense – with obvious stacking candidates in Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and Jared Cook – and an aggressive coach. The Chargers are consistently going for it on fourth down, which gives Herbert more volume than most of his counterparts. The Ravens defense is not what it once was and relies on getting pressure to disrupt passers as their coverage has fallen off dramatically. Baltimore has blitzed the third-most of any team in football this season. Herbert has responded to the blitz by taking more deep shots as his aDot increases from 7.75 to 8.43 when blitzed. More big plays could be in store if the Ravens try and force it by blitzing the MVP candidate.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings Ownership Projection: 9.68%
FanDuel Ownership Projection: 9.87%
The Patriots have been great at stopping the run so far, but that is due in large part to the teams they have faced. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have been feeding Ezekiel Elliott all season and it has been paying off in a big way. Elliott is top-five in rushing attempts and yards while also showing excellent efficiency. He ranks seventh in yards per attempt at 5.32 among running backs with at least 25 attempts. Elliot had an issue with explosive runs and forcing missed tackles in years past, but those problems seem to be behind him as his 14 10-plus yard runs ranks fourth in the NFL. He is also seeing excellent goal line usage with the second-most rush attempts inside the 5-yard line in all of football. He continues to be underpriced and overlooked, and has excellent exposure to one of the league’s top offenses. The Cowboys have scored fewer than 28 points just once this season.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
DraftKings Ownership Projection: 5.3%
FanDuel Ownership Projection: 7.5%
I anticipate Javonte Williams ownership to continue to drop as people flood to Jonathan Taylor, Darrell Henderson, and the extremely chalky Kareem Hunt. Even at a cheap price tag, Khalil Herbert and Darrell Williams will keep his ownership down.
Williams has been one of the best backs in the league to start the season. He will fly under the radar this week if Melvin Gordon plays, but become very chalky if Gordon is out. Williams has been phenomenal this season, forcing 18 missed tackles on his 54 rush attempts. That ties him with rookie Najee Harris, despite having 24 fewer attempts than Harris. He has shown big play ability, with eight for his 54 carries going for 10-plus yards and his 14% gash run percentage puts him on par with Nick Chubb. He’ll take on a Raiders team that has struggled against the run, currently ranking 29th in explosive run rate allowed. The Broncos have the second-most projected open field yards. Williams’ propensity for chunk yardage means he could have a massive game – even with limited volume.
J.D. McKissic, RB, Washington Football Team
DraftKings Ownership Projection: 1.7%
FanDuel Ownership Projection: 1.8%
The Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Football Team game is going to be extremely popular as the highest total’d game on the slate. Both teams have allowed their opponents to exceed their implied team totals in at least four games this year. J.D. McKissic is cheap, barely owned, and the pass-catching back for Washington. The Chiefs currently rank 28th DVOA covering running backs and as 6.5 point home dogs, Washington should be playing catchup in this one. That could lead to a nice day for McKissic. Since 2020 he has 12 games of five or more targets. He is averaging 6.5 receptions and 50 receiving yards in those games.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears
DraftKings Ownership Projection: 5.3%
FanDuel Ownership Projection: 7.5%
While the Bears’ pace of play and passing volume leave much to be desired, Mooney is going to have a massive day. He is seeing 35% of the air yards and 28% of the targets, and he’s going to take on a Packers defense that is 25th DVOA against WR2s. The Packers are missing their top two corners in this game and the Bears sit as six point dogs with their third string running back. They may be forced to throw more and with his role, Mooney is too cheap and under-owned on both sites.
Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants
DraftKings Ownership Projection: 7%
FanDuel Ownership Projection: 7.5%
Rookie receivers tend to come on as the year goes on, and you always want to be too early on them rather than too late. Toney has been fantastic his last two games. He’s seen 38 targets and amassed 267 yards. While Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton may be back, the Giants will be without Kenny Golladay. Toney should maintain his full-time role and there is no putting this genie back in the bottle. Most will flinch at his price tag, but he is a fantastic under-owned target in Matthew Stafford stacks.
Van Jefferson, WR, Los Angeles Rams
DraftKings Ownership Projection: 4.4%
FanDuel Ownership Projection: 1.5%
If you have read my work this week or listened to the Fade the Chalk podcast you know that I love Matthew Stafford this week. The Rams have the second-highest implied team total and they’ll be taking on one of the worst pass defenses in football. The Giants have allowed both the second-highest adjusted completion percentage and the second-highest deep completion percentage in football. New York ranks 31st in DVOA against other receivers and just gave up 44 points to the only elite offense they played this season in the Dallas Cowboys. Van Jefferson is second on the team in air yards and aDot and has shown big play ability all year long. He is exactly what we look for – cheap with big play ability at low ownership. Get him in some Matthew Stafford game stacks.
Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings Ownership Projection: 4.4%
FanDuel Ownership Projection: 1.5%
The Cardinals traded for Zach Ertz after Maxx Williams was lost for the season, but he is ineligible to play this weekend. That should lead to more four-wide sets for the Cardinals, which is good news for Rondale Moore. Moore saw 47% of the snaps last week, a season high. He’s been electric this season when he has been given his opportunities – seeing 30.4% of the targets when he is on the field. He is top-10 in both yards per route run and yards per target and is one of the most dangerous players in the league after the catch. In what could be a wind game, with more playing time, Moore could be fed more than people are expecting and has a massive ceiling. Like I mentioned with Toney, I want to be early on rookies and he looks like a tantalizing target at his current projected ownership.
Jared Cook, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
DraftKings Ownership Projection: 4.4%
FanDuel Ownership Projection: 1.5%
I’m either playing Travis Kelce or game-stacking my tight ends. Mark Andrews and Ricky Seals-Jones are both excellent plays in great game environments, but at his price tag Jared Cook is going overlooked. The Ravens are allowing 9.4 targets and 86.7 yards per game to the tight end position this season – both are the most in football.
Houston Texans DST
DraftKings Ownership Projection: 4.4%
FanDuel Ownership Projection: 1.5%
I will always look to play the cheapest defense possible, and I will take a stab with a Texans team that’s forced a turnover in all but one game this season. Carson Wentz has a long history of making mistakes, and without Quenton Nelson the Colts have one of the worst pass blocking offensive lines in football.
