Fantasy football player profile: Brandon Aiyuk

(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: Brandon Aiyuk)

Fantasy football value 2021 – Brandon Aiyuk

It just made sense. The San Francisco 49ers selected Aiyuk 25th overall back in the 2020 NFL Draft, and when it happened, the stars seemed to align. Aiyuk, who led the nation in yards after the catch during his final season in college, joined a San Francisco offense that is predicated on getting skill players the football and making plays after the catch. Again, it just made sense. 

Aiyuk had a very strong rookie season, hauling in 60 passes for 748 yards and five touchdowns, while adding two rushing scores on just six carries. As a rookie, Aiyuk played a huge role — likely an even larger one than he anticipated, as San Francisco dealt with a plethora of injuries to their pass-catchers. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel missed a combined 17 games in 2020, and Aiyuk benefited, especially later on in the season. Despite missing four games himself, Aiyuk led the team with 96 targets. Over his final six games, the rookie averaged an impressive 10.6 targets per game. And when you just take those six weeks, Aiyuk was third in the NFL in targets (61), seventh in receptions (40) and fourth in fantasy points. However, Samuel missed four of those games, while Kittle was out for five. In games where all three pass-catchers were active, Aiyuk only averaged 5.25 targets per game, ranking third in targets. In an offense that already wants to run the football at a high rate, that is a bit concerning.

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Of course, there is still plenty to like about Aiyuk. Again, he fits the offense so, so well, as 65% of Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards came after the catch last season, which was the highest rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. Aiyuk will get plenty of highly convertible targets, but he also saw a good amount of work deeper down the field last year, as his 7.7 yards before the catch per reception (per FTN Fantasy’s advanced receiving stats) was much, much higher than Samuel’s -0.2 mark. And yes, you read that second number correctly.

Of course, he wasn’t incredibly efficient, as San Francisco dealt with injuries to Garoppolo … and even when the quarterback was on the field, he wasn’t great. Aiyuk also caught passes from Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard, which led to Aiyuk sporting a 63% catchable ball percentage. That number was 12th worst among all wideouts with at least 50 targets last season. San Francisco addressed the quarterback position in the draft, moving up to third overall to select Trey Lance. It remains to be seen when Lance will start for the team, but there is obviously a path to this passing offense becoming extremely efficient if Lance hits, especially in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. And if/when Lance is under center, we will likely see this team take more shots down the field, which is where Aiyuk will likely be used more than any other pass-catcher from this team. 

Fantasy football ADP stock watch – Brandon Aiyuk

At the moment, per the FTN Fantasy ADP tool, Aiyuk is being drafted as the WR24, and while the talent is through the roof and the fit with the offense is seamless, I do believe that is a bit too high. And it really just comes down to targets and volume. As mentioned earlier, Aiyuk averaged just over five targets per game when Kittle and Samuel were healthy last year, and the only reason San Francisco wasn’t among the league leaders in rushing play percentage is because the defense was decimated by injury. Assuming the 49ers’ key defensive players are healthy this season, expect this team to contend for the league lead in rushing attempts, which means Aiyuk would have to be hyper-efficient when his targets inevitably decrease. I’d much rather draft a player like Diontae Johnson, who is coming off the board right after Aiyuk. I’d feel much better about him as the WR3 on my fantasy roster and if you draft two receivers ahead of him that see tremendous volume, I love it. However, he’s being drafted as a WR2 right now, which is a bit rich.

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NFL fantasy football ranking – Brandon Aiyuk

(Check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s top 100 0.5 PPR rankings.)

If you look at FTN’s consensus rankings for 2021, you’ll notice Aiyuk slides in as the WR26. As you can probably guess, I have him much closer to WR30, but I absolutely understand the upside Aiyuk presents. However, I think his final six games, while fantastic, don’t tell the full story of what his role will be if this San Francisco team can stay healthy. Because let’s not forget, on both sides of the ball, this team had as many injuries as anyone in football last season. Aiyuk, to me, is a WR3 with immense upside heading into his sophomore season.