NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Sunday presents us with eight total NBA games and as has become the norm on Sundays, only seven are on the main NBA DFS slate, as the Nets and Bucks will play in a matinee.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Blazers at Celtics preview
BOS -1.5, total: 231.5
With this game being the only one carrying an implied total north of 230 points, it’ll be important to get at least one piece of exposure Sunday.
The only notable injury, once again, is Kemba Walker, who is doubtful for this game. With Walker out, we see both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown carry usage rates over 30%, and in a game that’s expected to stay close in a high-scoring affair, both are elite plays. Tatum once again showed up his ceiling last game as he posted a career-high 60 points, making him my preferred option — though the $1,500 discount on Brown is a phenomenal bargain.
Marcus Smart played 44 minutes last game and posted 39.5 DK points on only six field-goal attempts. Getting that type of efficiency and peripheral production for $6,400 is a great way to get exposure to this game. He should also have a heightened ceiling for defensive peripherals given the fact that he’ll be guarding Damian Lillard quite a bit. Evan Fournier and Payton Pritchard are fine options in large-field tournaments, but their minutes and production are too volatile for cash games. The same can be said for Robert Williams and Tristan Thompson.
The Blazers come into almost an equally good spot as the Celtics here. Damian Lillard finally had a ceiling game last game and could be primed to repeat that once again, making him a fine play at $9,400 on DraftKings, but far from a priority. I’d much rather play him for $8,500 on FanDuel. The same can be said for CJ McCollum, who comes in $600 cheaper on FanDuel than DraftKings. The discounts simply ease the blow if they were to produce floor games.
The only other Blazer of interest here is Jusuf Nurkic. He’s topped 35 DKP in three of his last five games and given the matchup with Williams/Thompson, he should be in line for a full allotment of minutes without a risk of being run off of the court with small ball.
Heat at Hornets preview
MIA -6, total: 212
LaMelo Ball made his return to the court Saturday and didn’t miss a beat, scoring 35.75 DKP points in 28 minutes and showing he will be re-assuming the starting point guard role. While the second leg of the back-to-back may cause some concern regarding his minutes, he’s an elite option at under $7,000 unless we hear that he’s going to be limited. Even in a tough matchup, this price is too low for his upside (which makes him an even stronger play at $6,100 on FanDuel).
While there’s still a ceiling for Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges in the starting lineup here, the addition of Ball along with the matchup makes it a bit riskier. They’re easy fades for me on this slate. The same can be said for Devonte' Graham (if active), as he’s now been relegated to the bench and his price has yet to adjust.
The addition of Ball could help keep this game close, making it a bit more appealing of a spot for the Heat. This makes Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo viable options on a seven-game slate. They don’t break the bank and come in as some of the safest investments on the slate while also providing astronomical ceilings.
With Tyler Herro out, the only other Heat player that really catches my eye is Kendrick Nunn. He’s played at least 34 minutes in six straight games while topping 20 raw points in three of his last four. He should be primed for a similar workload once again and presents nice upside for a sub-$6,000 price tag.
Kings at Mavericks preview
DAL -6.5, total: 228.5
Luka Doncic finally had a ceiling game Saturday, posting a 31/20/12 triple-double in the absence of Kristaps Porzingis, and now gets an even better matchup Sunday. While it would make sense for Porzingis to return after resting Saturday, Doncic is still an elite option at under $11,000 since he’s averaged 30.6 points, 12.6 rebounds and 9.8 assists over his last five games against the Kings. If Porzingis does return, he makes for a fine option on FanDuel at under $8,000, but $8,700 is a bit steep on DraftKings on a slate where I’d rather save a few hundred and play Jaylen Brown or spend a few hundred more for Jimmy Butler.
Dorian Finney-Smith is really the only other Mavs player that I trust given his form (30-plus DK points in four straight games), but his $5,000 price tag doesn’t leave a massive amount of room for upside. He’s a fine mid-tier play, but far from a must. If Porzingis misses, you can say the same thing about Tim Hardaway, though there’s a ton of inconsistency that comes along with rostering him.
The Kings remain depleted on Sunday, with De'Aaron Fox out and Harrison Barnes and Chimezie Metu doubtful. Tyrese Haliburton is the obvious play here, as he’s averaged 8.68 more DraftKings points per game and sees a 6.73% bump in usage rate (24.77%) with Fox out this season. For $7,300, he’s an elite mid-tier option.
The forwards being out should open up room for Marvin Bagley, who saw 20 minutes in his first game back, as well as Mo Harkless to pick up some additional minutes. Bagley is still a risky investment given the length of his absence, but his sub-$5,000 price tag still provides room for upside if he starts. Harkless is a playable value option that can easily waltz into a good game simply by scoring eight points, grabbing a handful of boards, and racking up some stocks. Outside of those three, however, the rest of the team is tough to trust.
Buddy Hield would be the only other piece to look to, as he does carry a nice amount of upside in the scoring department, especially with the three-point bonus on DraftKings, but his price is a bit hard to swallow given his floor.
Knicks at Rockets preview
NYK -10.5, total: 215.5
The Knicks are finally getting some respect as a double-digit favorite here, but in all reality, it still may be a little too low. The Rockets have been abysmal while the Knicks have been the complete opposite and the game script here makes it a risky game to invest in for DFS purposes.
With that said, it’s hard to ignore some Knicks players in this matchup, most notably Julius Randle. The Knicks rank 23rd or worse against four of his player traits (per advanced DvP), including 25th against dimers, primary ball handlers and scorers, and 23rd against rebounders. This is a smash spot and I highly doubt his ownership will reflect that.
Based on that aDvP, this spot makes sense for Derrick Rose as well, who’s coming off of a 2-11 shooting game but posted at least 30 DK points in three straight games prior to that. He’s an elite bounceback candidate and a great mid-tier option Sunday. If looking at recent form, RJ Barrett is worth considering as well, as he’s topped 45 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and remains affordable across the industry in a great matchup.
This is quite the opposite of a matchup for the Rockets, as it may be the worst matchup on the slate. Because of this, I’ll continue to limit my Rockets’ exposure to Kevin Porter Jr., Christian Wood and Kelly Olynyk. All three carry massive ceilings, with Porter being the best bargain option, especially on FanDuel. He would be my priority here, with Wood second and Olynyk third. The latter’s $9,000 price tag simply feels way too high on FanDuel for me Sunday.
Suns at Thunder preview
PHX -15.5, total: 222.5
While the last game carried a gamescript that doesn’t facilitate fantasy production, this one is even worse. The 15.5-point spread is the largest on the slate, and the Thunder are coming into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back after losing to the Pacers by 57 Friday.
Truthfully, this is a game that I will likely cross off of my player pool. I have zero interest in targeting anyone on the Thunder here, even if Luguentz Dort is active, as the Suns have one of the best defensive units in the NBA and there is not a single “safe” option on the Thunder. There are far better ways to save salary on this slate.
The Suns are in an exploitable spot, but the issue is that the game could very well be over by halftime and minutes could be limited. If looking to the Suns, it makes sense to target the big three in Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. Cameron Johnson could provide some salary relief as well and unlike the other three, he’s a bit immune to the gamescript.
Sixers at Spurs preview
PHI -6, total: 221
The Sixers are free of major injuries in this game, giving us a healthy big three and rotation around them for one of the few times over the last handful of weeks. Because of this, however, it gets difficult to target this team due to the distribution of usage and touches. Joel Embiid is the obvious one at $10,400, but he’s failed to reach 30 minutes in four consecutive games and hasn’t topped 36 DK points in a single one of those four. The per-minute production is still elite, but if he can’t be counted on to surpass 30 minutes, then I have a hard time spending $10,400 on him.
Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons are fine options here, but it’s hard to consider them anything more than just that, “fine.” We run into the same issue with them as we do with Embiid, as Simmons is the only one of the two that has seen at least 30 minutes in a game over their last four and it was only in one game.
The Spurs are a tough team to target here given the matchup, but with Derrick White out and Dejounte Murray questionable, we could have even more value open up. Even if Murray plays, I’m OK with Lonnie Walker as a value option. In two games since White went down, he’s averaged 21.0 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.0 assists per game in 32.5 minutes per game. The minutes are the most important part, as the Spurs continue to start Devin Vassell but clearly intend to make Walker the primary piece here. For $3,500, you can do a lot worse.
DeMar DeRozan would also pick up a lot more ball-handling responsibilities with Murray potentially out. He should see a lot of Ben Simmons Sunday but is still worth considering in large-field tournaments given the upside he flashed last game (61.75 DKP). Patty Mills would likely take over Murray’s spot in the starting lineup should he sit and while he’s a fine value option, it’s hard to see an elite ceiling here where he would be in the winning GPP lineup Sunday.
Raptors at Lakers preview
LAL -7, total: 217
While Kyle Lowry sat out Saturday, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him return on the Sunday in the second half of their back-to-back. If he’s out, we can look right back to Fred VanVleet as a source of upside with Gary Trent out as well. If Lowry is active, however, I’m OK avoiding this backcourt given the tough matchup. Pascal Siakam is also an easy fade for me on this slate given his price and other forwards around him in the $8,000-$9,000 range.
I would prefer to drop down to Khem Birch, even in a tough matchup, as cheaper exposure to this game. He’s been a stellar replacement for Chris Boucher in the starting lineup, averaging 14.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 2.4 stocks in 33.1 minutes per game over his last five games. While the matchup is far from ideal, his $5,100 price tag makes it much easier to swallow.
LeBron James made his return Friday and is currently listed as questionable for Sunday. If taking the injury reports throughout the year into account, it would make sense to see him play as he was listed as questionable for almost every game this season. Even if he plays, I have little interest here given how conservative he may be with his output.
I’d rather take a stab on Anthony Davis, whose $9,100 price tag hasn’t budged since his 51.3-DK-point outing on Friday. He’s cheap enough to allow you to get exposure to another stud while offering a higher ceiling than just about anyone in his price range in an exploitable matchup.
