Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
We’re now just under three weeks away from the NFL Draft, so let’s dive into another mock draft. A lot has changed from when I did Mock Draft 2.0, so let’s put the pieces together based on what we’ve learned.
Of course, mock drafts are an exercise in futility, as it’s essentially impossible to get even remotely close to be correct on all your picks. But the good news is that we now have ample betting odds in addition to intel from which players teams have decided to bring in for top-30 visits. In this mock draft, I’m going to lean on the betting odds and make selections based on what the odds are telling us.
2024 NFL Mock Draft 3.0 — First Round
1. Chicago – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
He’s all but inked into this selection. Caleb Williams is currently -10000 to go first overall.
2. Washington – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The second pick gets much more interesting. As of now, the momentum seems to be in Jayden Daniels’ favor. He’s currently -145 to go to the Commanders in this spot.
3. New England – Drake Maye, QB, UNC
With Daniels going second, Drake Maye slides into the three-hole in New England. He’s currently the favorite to go third overall at +100. The combination of Williams, Daniels and Maye in this order is currently +115, which is the shortest odds in that particular betting market.
4. Minnesota (trade with Arizona) – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
The Vikings make a power move up the board to get their guy. Minnesota sends the 11th and 23rd overall picks along with a 2025 third rounder to get up to No. 4. J.J. McCarthy is +115 to go to the Vikings and is -280 to go in the top five.
5. LA Chargers – Marvin Harrison, WR, Ohio State
Jim Harbaugh cleaned house at wide receiver, trading Keenan Allen and moving on from Mike Williams, so look for the Chargers to address the position with Marvin Harrison falling into their lap. Harrison is -900 to go in the top 5. Technically, he’s the favorite to go fourth overall at -200, but he isn’t that big of a stretch at No. 5 with his current odds sitting at +300.
6. NY Giants – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Brian Daboll’s squad boasts one of the league’s thinnest wide receiver corps, so wideout could be in play with this pick. In Malik Nabers, they’d add a versatile pass catcher who is as explosive as they come and is especially capable of making plays downfield. Nabers is the favorite to go fifth overall at +200, but he’s also the favorite to go sixth with slightly shorter odds are +175.
7. Tennessee – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Offensive line is a major area of need for the Titans, especially at left tackle. Joe Alt would fill that need as a plug-and-play starter. Alt is the clear favorite to be picked seventh at -105.
8. Atlanta – Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Dallas Turner is athletic as they come and can get after the quarterback in a hurry. He’s currently the favorite to go eighth overall at +230. Additionally, he’s -150 to be a top-10 pick and is the favorite to be the first defensive player drafted at -185.
9. Chicago – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Bears could go in a number of directions with this pick, but the betting odds favor Rome Odunze in this spot. He’s a hefty -1100 to be a top-10 pick and is the favorite to go ninth overall at +250. Odunze would give them a true X-receiver with a mouthwatering combination of height, weight, and speed.
10. NY Jets – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
The Jets bring in some firepower for Aaron Rodgers. Brock Bowers may not be the biggest tight end, but he’s elite nearly everywhere else. A dynamic threat in the passing game and a bulldog as a blocker, he has a two-way skillset reminiscent of George Kittle. He’s the favorite to go here are +250. The Jets are also the favorite to draft him at +200.
11. Arizona (trade with Minnesota) – Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Jared Verse falls outside the top 10 in this mock, but that isn’t outlandish given his +260 odds to be a top-10 pick. Currently, there are no odds for Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Marvin Harrison in that market. There are eight other players with shorter odds than Verse, so a slide outside the top 10 is a very real possibility.
12. Denver – Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
This was arguably the toughest pick to make in this mock. There just isn’t a lot of buzz about Bo Nix right now. So why put him here? For starters, the Broncos are favored to draft him at -130. Denver doesn’t have a second-round pick, and it seems unlikely for Nix to still be on the board at pick 76. The Broncos are also -125 to select a quarterback with their first pick. Again, it’s worth noting that the point of this mock is to put together a first round that is informed by the betting odds. While this isn’t a pick a lot of people are making in mocks right now, the betting odds point strongly toward it.
13. Las Vegas – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
While the Raiders also have a need at quarterback, they’re favored to go offensive line in this spot at +140. Corner is currently second at +185, and quarterback is next at +400.
14. New Orleans – Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Offensive line is a glaring weak spot for the Saints and the odds have them heavily favored to address that need in this spot. Offensive lineman is currently -200 for the Saints’ first drafted player.
15. Indianapolis – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
The Colts didn’t address corner in free agency, so expect them to hit the position in the draft. Quinyon Mitchell is extremely athletic and can make plays on the ball at will in coverage. Corner is the favorite position for the Colts’ first player drafted at +125.
16. Seattle – Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
Mike Macdonald kicks off his head coaching tenure by addressing the trenches. Troy Fautanu has experience at tackle and guard giving Seattle versatility along the offensive line. Seattle is currently -160 to use their first pick on an offensive lineman.
17. Jacksonville – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
One of the top corners in the nation in 2023, Terrion Arnold has the versatility to excel in man and zone schemes and offers high-end athleticism. He would fill a major need for the Jaguars, who are -160 to go corner with their first pick.
18. Cincinnati – JC Latham, OT, Alabama
There’s nothing wrong with adding more protection for Joe Burrow, and the sportsbooks agree. The Bengals are currently -200 to use this pick on offensive line.
19. LA Rams – Byron Murphy, IDL, Texas
With Aaron Donald retired, the Rams have a big hole to fill along their defensive line. Byron Murphy offers a three-technique skill set to help the Rams on that front. Sean McVay’s squad currently sits at -150 to select a defensive lineman here.
20. Pittsburgh – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
There’s a lot of talent at tackle in this year’s class, so the Steelers get in on the mix. They’re heavily favored to go offensive line with their first pick at -240.
21. Miami – Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Like many teams in this range, the Dolphins are favored to pick an offensive lineman at -125, but Amarius Mims going the pick before pivots us to the second position in their odds. The Dolphins are +210 to select a defensive lineman/edge rusher.
22. Philadelphia – Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
It’s no secret that Philly has a need in their secondary. The Eagles consistently got roasted by opposing passing games in 2023. They get a much-needed upgrade to their cornerback room with the addition of the versatile Cooper DeJean. Philly is also favored to go offensive line at +150, but corner is right behind at +180.
23. Arizona (trade with Minnesota) — Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Cardinals take advantage of the second pick they received from Minnesota and address a major position of need. Nate Wiggins offers impressive length and ball hawking skills.
24. Dallas – Jackson Powers-Johnson, OC, Arizona
The Cowboys have Tyler Smith and Zach Martin, but they’re thin elsewhere along the offensive line. Jackson Powers-Johnson gives them an upgrade at center to help the interior of their offensive line. Dallas is favored to go offensive line with this pick at -175.
25. Green Bay – Graham Barton, IOL, Duke
The Packers are thin along the interior of their offensive line, and Graham Barton gives them a plug-and-play option likely at center. Green Bay is currently -125 to go offensive lineman in this spot.
26. Tampa Bay – Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
The Bucs an explosive edge in the Penn State product. Besides Vita Vea, Tampa is extremely thin along the defensive line. It isn’t surprising that they’re favored to go edge with this pick at +185.
27. Arizona – Brian Thomas, WR, LSU
No, they didn’t land Marvin Harrison in this mock after trading out of the fourth pick, but this isn’t a bad consolation prize. Brrian Thomas is a height-weight-speed specimen who put on a show at the combine.
28. Buffalo – Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are out, and the Bills are -240 to go wide receiver in this spot. Adonai Mitchell is an athletic freak who ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds.
29. Detroit – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The best first name in this year’s draft class lands with the Lions, who could use an upgrade at the position. Dan Campbell’s squad boasted an elite run defense, but they have some work to do against the pass. The betting odds have Detroit favored to go corner here at +135.
30. Baltimore – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Like many other teams, the Ravens are favored to go offensive line with their first pick. The odds currently have them heavily favored to do so at -195.
31. San Francisco – Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
This team has very few holes, so why not add to the offensive line? Trent Williams is still playing elite football, but it’s fair to wonder how long he can keep it up. He’ll be 36 in 2024. The sportsbooks seem to agree as the 49ers are currently -115 to select an offensive lineman as their first player drafted.
32. Kansas City – Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
A wide receiver seems likely in this spot, as the Chiefs are favored to draft the position first at -105. Ladd McConkey is a polished route runner who tested well in the predraft process. It wouldn’t be surprising if he slid into the back of the first round.
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