Week 21 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-130) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

The predictive model expects George Kittle to garner 6.2 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has notched substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (49.0).
George Kittle’s 10.8 adjusted yards per target this season signifies a noteable improvement in his receiving ability over last season’s 9.2 rate.
With an exceptional 6.78 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (96th percentile) this year, George Kittle ranks as one of the leading pass-game TEs in the league in picking up extra yardage.

Cons

With a 7.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s contest, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.1 plays on offense in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards