NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Bills vs. Chiefs
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 258.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 258.5 (-115) after it opened @ 260.5 (-115).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the greatest clip among all teams this week.
- In this week’s game, Patrick Mahomes is projected by the projection model to wind up with the most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.2.
- The Kansas City O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest level in football versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (74.1% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.8 per game) this year.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 277.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies a significant decrease in his passing ability over last season’s 325.0 figure.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 7.37 adjusted yards-per-target this year represents a noteworthy drop-off in his throwing effectiveness over last year’s 8.5% rate.
- This year, the formidable Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to the opposing side: a puny 4.1 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards
267
Passing Yards
