NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Bills vs. Chiefs
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-127) after it opened @ 61.5 (-119).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the greatest clip among all teams this week.
- The model projects Travis Kelce to accumulate 9.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Travis Kelce slots into the 99th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 50.7 mark this year.
- The Kansas City O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Travis Kelce’s receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 74.6% to 79.8%.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.8 per game) this year.
- Travis Kelce has compiled far fewer air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (67.0 per game).
- Travis Kelce has compiled significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (69.0) this year than he did last year (80.0).
- This year, the daunting Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a measly 4.2 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
