Week 20 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Nico Collins

Nico CollinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-133) after it opened @ 78.5 (-119).

Pros

This week’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Texans, who are massive -9.5-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are forecasted by the projection model to call 67.9 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: most in the league.
The model projects Nico Collins to earn 10.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Nico Collins has notched many more adjusted receiving yards per game (81.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).

Cons

This year, the fierce Ravens defense has surrendered a puny 59.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Ravens pass defense has shown good efficiency against WRs this year, allowing 6.52 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in the league.
The Ravens safeties profile as the best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards