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Chris Meaney
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 66.4% of their plays: the highest rate on the slate this week.
- The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- With a remarkable 75.6% Route% (88th percentile) this year, Logan Thomas places as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.
- Logan Thomas’s 33.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year signifies an impressive boost in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 25.0 figure.
Cons
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.8 per game) this year.
- The Cowboys defense has allowed the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 47.0) versus tight ends this year.
- This year, the formidable Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed a measly 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 9th-best rate in the league.
- As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Dallas’s unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 6th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
