NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-130/+100).
Pros
- At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs this week, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their standard game plan.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 10th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- At a mere 27.03 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 9th-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
- In this game, Mike Gesicki is forecasted by the projection model to find himself in the 75th percentile among tight ends with 4.1 targets.
- This year, the deficient Bills pass defense has allowed a whopping 77.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.
Cons
- Mike Gesicki has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (30.0 per game).
- The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Mike Gesicki has totaled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).
- Mike Gesicki’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, totaling just 6.15 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.39 figure last year.
- Mike Gesicki is positioned as one of the worst tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.67 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
