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Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Howell from EV Insight

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Sam Howell

Sam HowellPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 17

Commanders vs. 49ers

Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-143/+110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 224.5 (+110) after it opened @ 236.5 (-114).

Pros

  • This game’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are enormous -14-point underdogs.
  • The model projects the Commanders as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • In this contest, Sam Howell is expected by the projections to wind up with the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.3.
  • The San Francisco 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
Cons

  • The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This year, the fierce 49ers defense has given up the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a measly 6.9 yards.
  • The 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.25 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in football.
  • As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, San Francisco’s LB corps has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Projection
THE BLITZ
238
Passing Yards

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