NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Greg DortchReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Eagles vs. Cardinals
Right now, Greg Dortch’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (+100) after it opened @ 35.5 (-125).
Pros
- At a -12.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are big underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on throwing than their standard approach.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the league (40.8 per game) this year.
- The leading projections forecast Greg Dortch to be a more important option in his team’s air attack in this contest (14.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.0% in games he has played).
- Greg Dortch has totaled far more air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
- Greg Dortch’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this season, compiling 9.13 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 4.50 mark last season.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Cardinals to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.1% pass rate.
- The predictive model expects the Cardinals to run the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Cardinals O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Greg Dortch’s 25.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year illustrates a remarkable diminishment in his receiving skills over last year’s 42.0 rate.
- Greg Dortch’s possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 80.2% to 54.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
