Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Javonte Williams from EV Insight

Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-107/-121).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-107) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
The predictive model expects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 49.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Javonte Williams to garner 15.8 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Out of all running backs, Javonte Williams ranks in the 86th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 53.9% of the workload in his team’s ground game.
Javonte Williams has generated 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to RBs (77th percentile).

Cons

The Broncos may take to the air less in this week’s contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have only 127.5 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
The Broncos have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards