NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Lucas KrullReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Broncos vs. Chargers
Right now, Lucas Krull’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 15.5 (-135) after it opened @ 14.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Broncos may take to the air less in this week’s contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.7 per game) this year.
- The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- This year, the shaky Chargers defense has given up a massive 57.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 4th-most in the NFL.
- The Chargers pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78.6%) versus tight ends this year (78.6%).
Cons
- With a 3.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
- Our trusted projections expect the Broncos as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have only 127.5 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
- The Broncos have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards
16
Receiving Yards
