NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Jaguars vs. Panthers
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will be forced to use backup QB C.J. Beathard in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- With a 65.5% rate of throwing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the league has been the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.82 seconds per snap.
- The model projects Evan Engram to garner 8.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
- Evan Engram has been a much bigger part of his team’s air attack this season (23.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (17.6%).
Cons
- The Jaguars are a giant 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
- Evan Engram’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, accumulating just 4.95 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.00 mark last year.
- The Panthers defense has conceded the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 43.0) to tight ends this year.
- When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Carolina’s unit has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 10th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
