Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).

Pros

The Steelers may take to the air less in this week’s contest (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup QB Mason Rudolph.
This week’s spread indicates a throwing game script for the Steelers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
The projections expect Diontae Johnson to accrue 7.1 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson has posted a whopping 92.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson’s 67.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the league: 91st percentile for wideouts.

Cons

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call only 63.5 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
Diontae Johnson’s 57.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a significant decrease in his receiving prowess over last year’s 61.4% mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards