Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-110).

Pros

D.J. Moore has run a route on 95.0% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
In this week’s contest, D.J. Moore is forecasted by the projection model to position himself in the 85th percentile among WRs with 7.9 targets.
D.J. Moore has compiled a monstrous 94.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile when it comes to WRs.
D.J. Moore’s 73.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season reflects a substantial improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 49.0 figure.
D.J. Moore’s sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 57.7% to 72.9%.

Cons

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to pass on 46.0% of their downs: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.39 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Falcons, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.8 per game) this year.
The Chicago O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Falcons defense has yielded the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 120.0) versus wideouts this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards