Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The 49ers are an enormous 14-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the 49ers to be the 4th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 21.7 carries in this game, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has been a more important option in his team’s rushing attack this year (68.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (58.4%).
Christian McCaffrey has rushed for many more adjusted yards per game (97.0) this season than he did last season (68.0).

Cons

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the projection model to call only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.1 plays per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
107
Rushing Yards