Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 246.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 246.5 (-110) after it opened @ 240.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.
The Steelers defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.54 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 2nd-most in the league.

Cons

A running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.
The projections expect the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Seahawks have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
Geno Smith’s passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 69.4% to 65.9%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards