NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chiefs vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Joe Mixon has generated 57.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (85th percentile).
- This year, the daunting Chiefs run defense has conceded a feeble 4.67 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing rushing attacks: the 25th-best rate in the league.
- As it relates to the safeties’ role in run defense, Kansas City’s unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league. in the league.
Cons
- The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to run on 35.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
- While Joe Mixon has garnered 72.7% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much less involved in Cincinnati’s rushing attack in this game at 58.3%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
