NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jake BrowningPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chiefs vs. Bengals
Right now, Jake Browning’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 238.5 (-115) after it opened @ 234.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect Jake Browning to throw 37.6 passes in this contest, on balance: the 5th-most out of all QBs.
- Jake Browning is positioned as one of the most on-target passers in football this year with a terrific 73.8% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 92nd percentile.
Cons
- Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.
- The Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 5th-fewest yards in football (just 200.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Chiefs defense this year.
- The Chiefs pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, conceding 6.91 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards
247
Passing Yards
