Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Demario Douglas from EV Insight

Demario DouglasReceiving Yards

Right now, Demario Douglas’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-108/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-108) after it opened @ 46.5 (-114).

Pros

At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs this week, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their standard game plan.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 10th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
At a mere 27.03 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 9th-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
The projections expect Demario Douglas to garner 8.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
This year, the weak Bills pass defense has yielded a massive 70.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-highest rate in football.

Cons

The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Demario Douglas ranks as one of the leading WRs in the league in the league in space.
This year, the imposing Bills pass defense has conceded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing WRs: a mere 3.2 YAC.
The Bills cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards