NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Demario DouglasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Demario Douglas’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-108/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-108) after it opened @ 46.5 (-114).
Pros
- At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs this week, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their standard game plan.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 10th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- At a mere 27.03 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 9th-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
- The projections expect Demario Douglas to garner 8.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
- This year, the weak Bills pass defense has yielded a massive 70.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-highest rate in football.
Cons
- The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Demario Douglas ranks as one of the leading WRs in the league in the league in space.
- This year, the imposing Bills pass defense has conceded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing WRs: a mere 3.2 YAC.
- The Bills cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
