Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Bailey Zappe from EV Insight

Bailey ZappePassing Yards

Right now, Bailey Zappe’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-120) after it opened @ 205.5 (-110).

Pros

At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs this week, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their standard game plan.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 10th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
At a mere 27.03 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 9th-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
This year, the deficient Bills defense has surrendered a monstrous 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.

Cons

In logging a puny 20.3 pass attempts per game this year, Bailey Zappe slots in among the bottom QBs in football (14th percentile) by this measure.
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Bailey Zappe is positioned as one of the bottom QBs in the league this year, averaging 126.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 14th percentile.
Bailey Zappe’s 65.0% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a remarkable reduction in his passing accuracy over last year’s 70.0% mark.
Bailey Zappe’s 6.45 adjusted yards-per-target this season shows a remarkable drop-off in his throwing effectiveness over last season’s 8.2% mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
207
Passing Yards