Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Siemian from EV Insight

Trevor SiemianPassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Siemian’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 212.5 (-110) after it opened @ 204.5 (-110).

Pros

The projections expect the Jets to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
At just 27.18 seconds per play, the Jets offense grades out as the 10th-quickest paced in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This year, the porous Commanders defense has given up a whopping 267.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-most in football.
This year, the weak Washington Commanders defense has surrendered the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a whopping 8.61 yards.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
When talking about pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the New York Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards