NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-135/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 88.5 (-135) after it opened @ 88.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.4% pass rate.
- Our trusted projections expect Tyreek Hill to garner 10.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- With a top-tier 31.0% Target Share (98th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill stands as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the NFL.
- Tyreek Hill has posted significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (110.0) this year than he did last year (92.0).
- Tyreek Hill’s sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 70.8% to 75.4%.
Cons
- At the present time, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Miami Dolphins.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.4 per game) this year.
- Tyreek Hill has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (109.0 per game) than he did last season (131.0 per game).
- The Cowboys defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 122.0) to wide receivers this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
96
Receiving Yards
96
Receiving Yards
