Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).

Pros

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.
Out of all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 80th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 45.4% of the workload in his offense’s rushing attack.
When talking about executing run-blocking assignments (and the impact it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 6th-best in football last year.
This year, the stout Panthers run defense has yielded a puny 4.74 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 27th-best rate in football.
The Panthers linebackers grade out as the 6th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Cons

The projections expect the Packers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Packers this year (a mere 56.1 per game on average).
Aaron Jones has run for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).
Aaron Jones’s rushing efficiency has diminished this year, averaging a mere 3.81 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.13 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards