Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert from EV Insight

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

To the extent of a defense’s impact on tempo, at 27.47 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 5th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
With an elite 87.5% Route% (97th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert rates as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the NFL.
The model projects Dallas Goedert to notch 5.3 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
When talking about air yards, Dallas Goedert ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among TEs this year, accruing a monstrous 30.0 per game.
The Eagles O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Cons

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Eagles being a heavy 14-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Dallas Goedert has totaled significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (42.0) this season than he did last season (58.0).
Dallas Goedert’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 80.2% to 72.3%.
This year, the stout New York Giants defense has yielded a mere 64.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the smallest rate in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards