NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Tucker KraftReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Panthers vs. Packers
Right now, Tucker Kraft’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).
Pros
- In this contest, Tucker Kraft is forecasted by the projections to finish in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.9 targets.
- The model projects Tucker Kraft to be a much bigger part of his team’s pass attack in this contest (17.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.1% in games he has played).
- When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers ranks as the 10th-best in football this year.
- With an exceptional 32.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (75th percentile) this year, Tucker Kraft rates among the top pass-game TEs in the league.
- Tucker Kraft comes in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football among tight ends, hauling in a remarkable 80.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.
Cons
- With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.
- The projections expect the Packers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Packers this year (a mere 56.1 per game on average).
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.9 per game) this year.
- This year, the daunting Carolina Panthers defense has given up a mere 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
