Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Bijan Robinson from EV Insight

Bijan RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-120) after it opened @ 59.5 (-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Falcons as the 4th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 48.5% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 138.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
The projections expect Bijan Robinson to accumulate 13.7 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Bijan Robinson has grinded out 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (78th percentile).
This year, the porous Colts run defense has conceded a massive 131.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Cons

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards