Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Isaiah Likely from EV Insight

Isaiah LikelyReceiving Yards

Right now, Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-103/-127).

The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-103) after it opened @ 35.5 (-110).

Pros

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.3 per game) this year.
Our trusted projections expect Isaiah Likely to notch 6.0 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
While Isaiah Likely has accounted for 7.4% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Baltimore’s pass game in this week’s contest at 19.2%.
Isaiah Likely’s 82.7% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a noteworthy growth in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 65.4% mark.

Cons

The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 57.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
Isaiah Likely has put up far fewer air yards this year (10.0 per game) than he did last year (26.0 per game).
The 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against TEs this year, giving up 6.36 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.93 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards