NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Broncos vs. Patriots
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 212.5 (-110) after it opened @ 207.5 (-110).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- The Denver O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Russell Wilson’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 59.3% to 66.2%.
- This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has allowed a staggering 72.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 10th-biggest rate in the league.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New England’s group of CBs has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 9th-worst in the league.
Cons
- This game’s spread suggests a running game script for the Broncos, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- The model projects the Broncos as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see only 124.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.
- The Denver Broncos have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- In this week’s game, Russell Wilson is projected by the model to average the 3rd-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 29.5.
Projection
THE BLITZ
202
Passing Yards
202
Passing Yards
