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Chris Meaney
Cooper KuppReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Saints
Right now, Cooper Kupp’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The 5th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Rams this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).
- Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
- The leading projections forecast Cooper Kupp to accrue 9.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
- Cooper Kupp has posted a whopping 77.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 4 points.
- Cooper Kupp has been a much smaller piece of his team’s passing offense this season (26.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (32.1%).
- Cooper Kupp’s 65.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a material decrease in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 84.0 rate.
- Cooper Kupp’s 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a noteworthy regression in his receiving skills over last season’s 76.4% figure.
- This year, the tough New Orleans Saints defense has yielded a paltry 57.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 3rd-best rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
