Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-121/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-121) after it opened @ 49.5 (-121).

Pros

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by the model to call 67.2 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.4 plays per game.
Among all running backs, Alvin Kamara ranks in the 90th percentile for carries this year, making up 55.1% of the workload in his team’s ground game.
Alvin Kamara has generated 61.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league when it comes to RBs (90th percentile).

Cons

The Saints are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New Orleans Saints to run on 39.2% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
With a very bad record of 2.50 yards after contact (15th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara stands as one of the worst RBs in football.
As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Los Angeles’s unit has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards