NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Seahawks vs. Eagles
Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game’s line suggests a throwing game script for the Eagles, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
- The model projects the Eagles as the 3rd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect D’Andre Swift to notch 15.3 carries in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- After comprising 25.3% of his offense’s run game usage last season, D’Andre Swift has been more involved in the run game this season, currently comprising 48.4%.
- This year, the tough Seahawks run defense has given up a feeble 4.64 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition’s running game: the 24th-smallest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- The model projects the Eagles offense to be the slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.45 seconds per snap.
- D’Andre Swift’s 4.5 adjusted yards per carry this year shows a substantial decline in his rushing skills over last year’s 5.4 mark.
- With an atrocious record of 2.49 yards after contact (15th percentile) this year, D’Andre Swift stands among the least effective running backs in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
