NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Seahawks vs. Eagles
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-136/+104).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (+104) after it opened @ 41.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.5 per game) this year.
- The leading projections forecast Dallas Goedert to total 5.3 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- Dallas Goedert has put up a whopping 29.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among tight ends.
- In regards to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles grades out as the best in the NFL this year.
- With a stellar 6.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (91st percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert ranks among the top tight ends in the pass game in football in the open field.
Cons
- This game’s line suggests a throwing game script for the Eagles, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 50.1% of their plays: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
- The model projects the Eagles offense to be the slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.45 seconds per snap.
- Dallas Goedert’s 34.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 40.0.
- Dallas Goedert’s 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season reflects a substantial regression in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 58.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
