NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Patriots vs. Chiefs
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 254.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 254.5 (-110) after it opened @ 247.5 (-114).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.
- This week, Patrick Mahomes is anticipated by the projections to have the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6.
- Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with an exceptional 67.2% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 76th percentile.
- This year, the porous New England Patriots defense has given up a colossal 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-highest rate in the NFL.
- The New England cornerbacks profile as the 9th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.
- Patrick Mahomes has thrown for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (278.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).
- Patrick Mahomes’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, totaling just 7.41 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 figure last year.
- This year, the tough Patriots defense has allowed the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing squads: a measly 4.3 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
289
Passing Yards
289
Passing Yards
