NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Patriots vs. Chiefs
Right now, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-121/-107).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-121) after it opened @ 49.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.
- The leading projections forecast Clyde Edwards-Helaire to total 14.1 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
- While Clyde Edwards-Helaire has accounted for 14.8% of his offense’s run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much more involved in Kansas City’s ground game in this week’s contest at 57.6%.
- When talking about run-blocking (and the importance it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the best in the NFL last year.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 4th-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (14.0) this year than he did last year (30.0).
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s running effectiveness has declined this season, totaling just 3.40 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.28 mark last season.
- This year, the shaky New England Patriots run defense has conceded a massive 3.51 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 31st-highest rate in football.
- When it comes to the safeties’ role in stopping the run, New England’s collection of safeties has been exceptional this year, profiling as the best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
