NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Browns vs. Bears
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are projected by the projection model to call 66.2 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Cleveland Browns have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 66.2 plays per game.
- The Chicago Bears defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.
- The predictive model expects David Njoku to garner 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
- David Njoku has been an integral part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 20.7% this year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- After accumulating 45.0 air yards per game last year, David Njoku has seen a big decline this year, currently boasting 29.0 per game.
- David Njoku’s 66.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a material decrease in his receiving skills over last season’s 77.2% figure.
- David Njoku’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling just 6.65 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.91 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
