Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Antonio GibsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Rams vs. Commanders
Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-115) after it opened @ 36.5 (-120).
Pros
- The predictive model expects Antonio Gibson to be a more important option in his offense’s running game in this week’s game (52.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
- With an outstanding total of 3.46 yards after contact (90th percentile), Antonio Gibson stands among the unyielding RBs in football this year.
Cons
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Commanders to run on 33.8% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
- The model projects the Commanders offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.46 seconds per snap.
- The Washington offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league last year at blocking for rushers.
- Antonio Gibson has run for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (15.0) this year than he did last year (35.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards
46
Rushing Yards
