Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jaylen Warren from EV Insight

Jaylen WarrenRushing Yards

Right now, Jaylen Warren’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-115/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-115) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).

Pros

Jaylen Warren has been much more involved in his team’s run game this season (32.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (16.3%).
When talking about run support (and the ramifications it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Steelers profiles as the 10th-best in the league last year.
Jaylen Warren’s 42.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year reflects an impressive improvement in his running ability over last year’s 23.0 rate.
With an exceptional total of 4.97 adjusted yards per carry (88th percentile), Jaylen Warren places among the best pure rushers in the league this year.
Opposing teams have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the league (136 per game) vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.41 seconds per snap.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Rushing Yards