Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Lions vs. Broncos
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-106/-122).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-106) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Detroit Lions have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.6 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The predictive model expects Sam LaPorta to total 6.7 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Sam LaPorta rates as one of the top TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an outstanding 51.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.
- This year, the anemic Denver Broncos defense has given up a whopping 66.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- This week’s line suggests a running game script for the Lions, who are favored by 4.5 points.
- The projections expect the Lions to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
- The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
