Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-115) after it opened @ 15.5 (+100).
Pros
- At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.
- Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
- This year, the anemic Steelers defense has surrendered the 9th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a massive 8.71 yards.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.8% pass rate.
- Juju Smith-Schuster has been a much smaller part of his offense’s pass game this year (12.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.3%).
- Juju Smith-Schuster has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (26.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
- Juju Smith-Schuster has notched a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (19.0) this year than he did last year (62.0).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.8%) to wideouts this year (62.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
