NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Roschon JohnsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Roschon Johnson’s rushing yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-137) after it opened @ 14.5 (-125).
Pros
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to run on 51.8% of their plays: the 2nd-highest rate among all teams this week.
- When talking about opening holes for runners (and the ramifications it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 9th-best in the league last year.
Cons
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projection model to run only 61.8 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
- This year, the shaky Detroit Lions run defense has been torched for a whopping 3.82 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing run game: the 29th-highest rate in football.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in stopping the run, Detroit’s group of DEs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Rushing Yards
28
Rushing Yards
