Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
There’s only one game in the FBS Saturday, and it features the most historic rivalry in the sport as Army (5-6) and Navy (5-6) face off for the 124th time at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass.
The Black Knights have had the Midshipmen’s number lately, winning five of the past seven meetings. Last season, Army defeated Navy 20-17 in double overtime. However, Navy leads this longstanding rivalry 62-54-7.
Army enters Saturday’s game on a three-game winning streak, including a 23-3 win over Air Force Nov. 4. The Midshipmen had their two-game winning streak snapped Nov. 25 in a 59-14 road loss to SMU.
Bettors and college football fans shouldn’t expect a ton of points to be scored between these two service academies this weekend, as they can run the football but defend at a high level. The total is set at O/U 27.5, with the Black Knights as three-point favorites, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Below, we’ll break down this iconic matchup and provide readers with our best bet. Also, don’t forget to check out the rest of FTNBets’ CFB content with bowl season on the horizon.
Odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Army vs. Navy
Spread: Army -3 (-105); Navy +3 (-115)
Moneyline: Army -148; Navy +124
Total: Over 27.5 (-108); Under 27.5 (-108)
The Black Knights started the regular season shaky (2-6), suffering losses to UMass, LSU and UL Monroe. The only games Army won during the first two months were against Delaware State (57-0) and UTSA (37-29).
However, once the calendar flipped to November, the Black Knights flipped a switch and played excellent football on both sides of the ball. They held their opponents to 12.6 points per game in their last three games and forced nine total turnovers.
Most of those turnovers came against Air Force on Nov. 4, who had six in a 23-3 win for Army. The Black Knights also ran for 213 yards and two touchdowns. Junior quarterback Bryson Daily accounted for both touchdowns and 170 yards on 36 carries.
Speaking of their running game, Army is averaging 256 rushing yards per game during their three-game win streak. The Black Knights were only outgained once on the ground during this streak by Holy Cross (239-190).
The Black Knights’ offense will try to duplicate that effort against the Midshipmen defense, which has one of the better run defenses in the American Athletic Conference (121.9 yards per game allowed) this season.
As for Navy, they’ve lost three out of their last five games heading into Saturday’s game. In their three losses, the Midshipmen were outscored by 23.3 points and allowed 407.6 total yards per game. When you have an offense that averages 18.3 points per game (third-lowest average in the AAC), the defense needs to do its job.
The Mids will hope that sophomore fullback Alex Tecza can lead the charge offensively, as Navy has had four different quarterbacks take snaps this season. Tecza has posted 724 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 117 carries. As for the quarterback spot, senior Xavier Arline was listed at the top of the depth chart, followed by senior Tai Lavatai and freshman Braxton Woodson.
Arline suffered an injury in Navy’s loss to SMU, which led to Woodson taking over in the first half. The freshman had 175 scrimmage yards (104 rushing) and a rushing touchdown. If Arline and Lavatai can play on Saturday afternoon, it would be a huge boost to the Mids’ offense, as both quarterbacks are dynamic in the running game. Arline has 724 yards and five TDs, while Lavatai has 171 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Based on all the stats and facts we discussed, most bettors would lean toward the under as these two teams know what each other likes to do. The under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between Army and Navy, which is impressive.
However, those totals never closed under 30 points. The lowest point total over that span was 32 in 2022, and the final score was 37 points. I know there’s some uncertainty at QB for Navy, and Army’s offense hinges on the shoulders of Daily. However, I believe points will be scored in this rivalry as the Commander in Chief’s Trophy is on the line.
Best Bet
Over 27.5 (-108)
